It was ultimately too confusing a scenario for any concrete reasons to be drawn out of it. I expected a clear-cut reason as to why Locke was right about their needing to stay on the island yet Hurley was wrong to go with Locke, but we didn't get that. As it happens, both Locke and Jack were right - the mercenaries on the freighter wanted to kill them all, but the first four people to land on the island ended up helping them to escape. The village turned out to be the least safe place and most of Locke's group, who Hurley helped to encourage, died - I suspect Jack wins on numbers of survivors, though luck had a lot to do with it. The main threat chose to go with Locke twice, so we don't know which he meant. I'm not entirely sure the writers didn't simply forget about this plot point ....
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