I totally agree with ya on a few things:
Ben is not a liar - he is a man of his word, in that when he makes a promise - he invariably keeps it. Just ask Michael.
I also agree that Ben plays with a larger and more complete deck than many of the other characters - does he have flashes? can he project snippets of the future or of future probabilities? does he tap into the islands 'magic box'? (after all, the island CAn see the future..as can island spirits imho) ..all possibile imo. So you could be right, perhaps Ben didn't plan to let Jack go at that point.
Personally, and this isn't refuting your idea - merely giving you my perspective - I think that Ben was totally going to let Jack and Jules go - however, as Ben said in the King of the Castle Mobisode: 'if the island doesn't want you to leave, then the island wont let you leave'.
Whether Ben had a complete knowledge that the island wouldn't let Jack and Jules leave, i doubt..however what I don't doubt is that Ben 'willed' for something to happen to prevent them leaving - ala he used the islands 'magic box'..or the island itself intervened and manipulated it's hold over Locke to collide with the futures of Jack and Jules. As we've seen with Mike and even with Boones death etc - the island can do stuff.
But yeah, I think your perspective is also very possible, as '2-step Ben' is a guy who you wouldn't bet against being able to forshadow mere shadows in fates future bulding machine.
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